My name is Cornelia Müller and I am 21 years old. I am an activist for a thriving South Africa and traditional values. I will be starting my studies in International Studies at the Open University at the end of this year.
South Africa finds itself at the precipice of a catastrophe. The liberal risk consultancy group, Eunomix, made a bold forecast, based on detailed statistical analysis of South Africa’s economic trajectory and government’s performance, that by 2030 South Africa will be a failed state. This will not only threaten South Africa’s transnational relations and essential structure of its society, but more importantly will devastate ALL South African citizens. Regarded as a fragile state by The Fund for Peace group with continuing decline, South Africa is nearing its doomsday. This article aims on discussing three key factors that has led to this forecast and will ultimately lead to an imminent collapse of South Africa as a State.
The public sector is a key component of the economy, and it plays a critical role in economic growth and development in a country. The two aspects of the public sector, the public enterprises and public services, have seen immense devastation in South Africa for over more than a decade. ALL public enterprises (the Railway system, the Electricity supplier, the South African Airways) are bankrupt, there is terrible deterioration in public services and the public sector is at its last breath. Other than the infrastructure not being maintained or receiving its much-needed replacements (the cost of the replacement of the damaged water and sanitation infrastructure is stated to be half of the GDP), South Africa has also seen chronic infrastructure under spending. This has had extremely damaging effects to the economy and South Africa’s peoples. Furthermore 80% of public schools are dysfunctional, with more than 3000 schools using pit latrines as toilets and 84% of public hospitals are unable to comply with basic health care standards on key essentials such as infection controls and availability of medicine. Alone this first factor is cataclysmic and prove the chaotic situation in the public sector.
Going on to the second key factor is the severe economic decline South Africa has experienced the last couple of years. There was a constant decline in the GDP of South Africa, believed to have reached a pinnacle in 2019, when it fell by 3.2 % in the first quarter – the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy was strained by the global financial crisis. But this so believed pinnacle was only the beginning of severe economic decline due to debt (which finds itself at 82% of the GDP) and corruption (with 41 of the 80 executive committee members having serious corruption claims against them). In 2020 South Africa saw a decline in the GDP for the fourth consecutive quarter, meaning a severe recession. The 16.4% fall in the GDP in the first and second quarter resulted in an annualized growth of -51% in South Africa. With the economy in a weak position and employment rapidly declining, South Africa finds itself in deep trouble with this severe economic contraction.
The last factor to be discussed is the widespread vengeance seeking group grievances in South Africa. With an average of 58 people murdered each day in South Africa, it is without debate ranked as having the third highest crime rate in the World. To elaborate specifically on the vengeance seeking crimes in South Africa it is at the least described as gut-wrenching. The white farmers of South Africa are experiencing terrorization in their homes and on their farms. From the knowledge of victims’ being brutally tortured for hours to anti-white sentiments of influential politicians inflating radical populism within the majorities, the white farmers are living in fear- with reason. The brutality of these attacks seems borderless, from victims being hacked to death, burned with clothing irons, beaten with shovels, stabbed with garden forks up to boiled oil being poured down victims’ throats. These attacks are followed by applause on social media and motivated by influential politicians – the ANC has a vocal racist rhetoric and the overt-Marxist Parliamentary party (The Economic Freedom Fighters) sing “shoot to kill, shoot the farmer” at their rallies. These grievances are motivated by the Colonial of a Special Type concept as well as the stolen land narrative. Even after 27 years after the fall of Apartheid, South Africa is terrorized by racially motivated crimes and the division seems to have increased.
In conclusion, SA is at high risk of becoming a failed state. The factors discussed within this article are mere parallels correlating with other failed states such as Zimbabwe. In the end SA will have one of two options when reaching a failed stated scenario, either to suppress democracy to keep the ANC in power or to allow the disintegration of the ANC. No matter to which one we result to, the effect on the people of South Africa will be devastating, leading to lost lives and lost potential- a truly annihilating realization for me as a young South African.